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Jamie Dimon, the chairman and CEO of J. P. Morgan Chase, said Thursday the current market volatility can be attributed to a variety of worries about political risk and oil prices, but the issue “that’s probably roiling the market the most is trade.”

“How bad is it going to get?” Dimon asked during an interview with CNBC’s Becky Quick. Dimon said traders, executives and other market watchers are trying to figure that out and are factoring it into their outlooks.

The U.S. economy is strong, Dimon said. Companies are hiring, consumers are spending, unemployment is down, he noted. But stocks have been volatile. On Thursday, they fell sharply and then tried to recover some of that ground in the afternoon. As of 2:25 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 454 points.

The U.S. under the Trump administration has engaged in an escalating trade war with China, though the two sides are talking and set a 90 day time frame from Dec. 1 to get an agreement.

Dimon called it a trade “skirmish.” But it is forcing business leaders to find new supply lines, rethink investments or hold off on investments. “Those things are just causing uncertainty, which causes volatility.”

Dimon was in Washington along with the top executives of other large companies to attend the Business Roundtable’s CEO Innovation Summit. The head of the biggest U.S. bank was just elected chairman of the lobbying group for third year as executives face a the second half of President Donald Trump’s term.

Trump’s early policies, including tax cuts last year, have been seen as business friendly but there are challenges, such as the possibility of slowing economic growth and the effects of Trump’s tariffs on American companies.

Dimon says he doesn’t expect the U.S. and China to come to final terms on their trade negotiations in three months, but they should be able to make progress. He places the likelihood of an agreement at 60 percent but says there’s always a risk that something goes south. “That kind of uncertainty is just not good for markets.”

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Equifax mystery: Where is the data?

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If this leading theory is right, the only people who needed to worry about the Equifax breach were people in sensitive government positions or with lots of access, influence and power: future senators, overseas CIA officers, people who oversee U.S. corporate data centers or senior financial executives of technology companies, for instance.

The fevered advertisements that urged consumers to check whether their data had been compromised and take numerous steps to freeze it and monitor it turns out to have been unnecessary for this breach — at least so far.

Still, Farshchi said credit freezes and monitoring services are still the best way to determine whether personal data has been stolen or your identity misused. Experts outside Equifax have long agreed.

As for Jeffrey, he said he and many of his contemporaries will continue hunting for the data, probably on their own time. About once a week, he says, he gets up early with a cup of coffee and sets his sights on his usual dark web haunts with Equifax in mind.

Knowing that an intelligence agency probably has the data, he said he’s also reading the news more often. He looks for stories about bribery, graft, spies being caught or politicians suddenly spouting rhetoric in defense of hostile nations where they hadn’t before.

“I think I’m going to be watching some news feed some day a decade from now and see that some politician is trying to do some crazy deal with some country we supposedly don’t like,” he wrote via secured text message. “And I’m really going to wonder: am I finally looking at the Equifax data after all this time?”

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Asia markets set to be cautious amid ongoing US-China trade talks

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The South China Morning Post reported Wednesday that Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Friday.

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Trump will get the weak dollar he likes from a China trade deal but not if he goes after Europe

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A trade deal with China could stop the dollar’s rise, but it may not stay down if President Donald Trump then turns his focus to tariffs on European cars.

U.S. trade negotiators are in China this week, and stocks and risk assets have risen on optimism that a deal will be reached and that Trump will not impose new sanctions on the March 1 deadline, if talks are continuing. At the same time, the dollar has moved higher, after a series of more positive U.S. data, including Thursday’s CPI.

“When you look around the world, that seems to be where the big economic risks are emanating from. The U.S. economy is slowing, but it’s still growing above trend,” said Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist. “The dollar has gone up every day, except for one, since the jobs data, and that’s right after the Fed sounded so dovish.”

The dollar index has risen 8.4 percent over the past year, boosted by concerns that trade wars and tariffs will harm the global economy. But recently, its rise has been fueled by the economic data, after January’s robust jobs report reduced worries about a recession. Trump has said in the past that a strong dollar hurts the U.S. while other countries manipulate their currencies, but other administration officials have backed a stronger dollar.

Strategists say the initial reaction in the dollar, should the U.S. and China come up with a trade deal, would be a decline, as emerging market currencies jump and the euro gains, at least in the short term.

But the Commerce Department is soon expected to release the results of its study of the global automobile industry, through the prism of national security concerns, and many analysts believe it will recommend tariffs on European vehicles. The report is expected Feb. 17, and the administration would then have 90 days to act on it.

Mark McCormick, TD Securities head currency strategist, said the euro could head to the top of its recent range, to about $1.16 after a China deal. “If there are European tariffs, we’re going to 1.10,” he said. Euro/dollar was at 1.1264 Wednesday.

“The markets are trying to price different outcomes, and they’re all overshooting because nobody has any conviction on what to do on any asset class,” said McCormick, of the effect of trade wars. “It weakens global growth. It impacts U.S. multinationals’ operations. It impacts local economies. It changes the trajectory of monetary policy. It becomes a very challenging environment to build scenarios around. Everybody is just kind of waiting for some solution, whether it’s Brexit, Trump China trade issues, some of the broader discussions around trade.”

The euro, in the meantime, has been responding to weakness in European data, concerns about Brexit and trade uncertainty. Trade experts have said the U.S. will likely reach a China deal before turning its sights on Europe and then Trump may well impose tariffs.

“Auto tariffs would hit the euro zone very sharply. That would be a negotiating tactic. I think the problem with this again is you might have a very adverse reaction in global financial markets since that kind of thing would undermine the sustainability of that kind of approach,” said Ben Randol, G-10 foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “It just feeds the narrative of a generalized global trade uncertainty.”

The euro would dive on new tariffs, and the dollar would strengthen.

“The U.S. dollar goes up on issues of trade uncertainty because the rest of the world is hurt more,” said Randol.

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