However, Constantine Fraser, European analyst at research firm TS Lombard, said that Greece will probably avoid a snap election in the coming months, given that some lawmakers of Anel will continue to support the government.
“Greece’s creditors and the EU will be looking closely not only at the vote of confidence, but at the numbers in parliament on the government’s other business,” Fraser said.
“But a snap election could be positive for markets: It would be better than a toothless minority government and could bring the business-friendly opposition to power,” he also noted.
A poll out on December 18, by the poling company Pulse RC, showed that if the General Election were to take place now, the conservative party New Democracy would win with 38 percent of the votes. Tsipras’ left-leaning Syriza would place second with 26 percent.
“If Tsipras indeed survives Wednesday’s confidence vote, I do expect him to first try to pass policy covering these benefits and tax changes before calling new elections. If he then fails to implement such measures he could blame the opposition, while if he doesn’t try the opposition could use it against Syriza in the campaign,” Wijffelaars also said via email.
Greece exited its third bailout program last August, after nearly 10 years of external financial help. Life after the bailout program will be a heated topic ahead of the election, as most voters would not have yet felt a huge positive change in their pockets.
Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, said Monday in an email: “Itself, a Greek election is of limited interest to international investors. Greece is more firmly established as a member of the euro and is running a primary fiscal surplus. However, investors may choose to look at the extent of support for unconventional or extreme political groups and extrapolate that into European trends.”