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The U.S. flag flies at a welcoming ceremony between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump in 2017.

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Beijing has a host of options to retaliate against the latest the hike in U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, experts said on Monday.

The latest round of trade talks between American and Chinese negotiators concluded on Friday without a trade agreement. Those negotiations fell under the shadow of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to more than double the tariff rate to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods — which he made good on just after midnight ET on Friday.

China’s Commerce Ministry said immediately after those new rates came into effect that it would take countermeasures against the American move. It did not announce what its response would entail but said it “deeply regrets” the turn of events.

Experts told CNBC that Beijing’s response could end up combining several ways to hurt the U.S.

“I expect that China will retaliate and they will do it in as commensurate a way as they can, and that will include not just imports,” said Susan Shirk, former deputy assistant secretary of state during the Clinton administration. “I think our farmers and our farm exports to China will be targeted because that’s what President Trump cares about politically,”

She added that she expects added pressure on American firms operating in China, potentially including a slowdown in approvals for banks and checks on imports.

“Really anything could be fair game, and I would be extremely surprised if there were no retaliation,” said Shirk, who is now the 21st Century China Center chair at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy.

Another option for Beijing’s retaliation could include currency depreciation, analysts said. That is, a drop in value for the yuan would give Chinese exports a trade advantage and potentially offset the impact of U.S. tariffs.

“We think the currency is one area in which Beijing has a clear advantage over Washington,” Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at research firm TS Lombard, said in a note on Friday.

He said China’s shrinking current account balance, and the tariffs re-escalation “will create an opening for the (People’s Bank of China) to accept further market-driven depreciation ” of the yuan in the second half of this year.

“Note though that, while the People’s Bank of China may tolerate more yuan depreciation, they may be wary of using it as a retaliatory tool. As well as inciting Trump’s wrath, a weaker currency would also risk triggering capital outflows and damage efforts to open China’s economy,” Seema Shah, senior global investment strategist at Principal Global Investors, cautioned in a note.

Many have cautioned that China could dump its more than $1 trillion worth of U.S. debt in retaliation, but one expert told CNBC on Monday that such a move would ultimately not be in the country’s best interest.

“The largest holder of U.S. Treasurys in the world is China, and so they hurt their own balance sheet as much as they incrementally hurt the U.S. and the losses that they would be forced to recognize are very, very real,” said James Sullivan, head of Asia ex-Japan equity research at J.P. Morgan.

Yet despite the array of options available to Chinese President Xi Jinping for retaliation to the American tariff hike, he doesn’t necessarily have the upper hand.

“I think there are workarounds, but this public chicken game between President Trump and President Xi is very, very difficult for President Xi to work his way out of,” said Shirk.

— CNBC’s Jacob Pramuk, Everett Rosenfeld, Eustance Huang and Reuters contributed to this report.

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All-electric jet firm Eviation announces US airline as first customer

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LE BOURGET, FRANCE – JUNE 17, 2019: An Israeli Eviation Alice electric aircraft, developed by Eviation Aircraft, on display at the 2019 Paris Air Show opened at Le Bourget Airport. Marina Lystseva/TASS (Photo by Marina LystsevaTASS via Getty Images)

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The Israeli start-up Eviation announced at the Paris Air Show that U.S regional airline Cape Air is to buy its electric aircraft.

Eviation is developing a nine-passenger aircraft designed to fly up to 650 miles at around 240 knots (276 miles per hour). A commercial jet would cruise around 500 miles per hour. The electric plane — called Alice with a prototype being unveiled at the show this week — is designed for the sort of distances usually conducted by train.

Cape Air is set to buy a “double-digit” number of the plane which has a list price of around $4 million each. It’s expected that any customer would be able to negotiate a smaller figure.

The company’s chief executive, Omer Bar-Yohay, told a press conference Tuesday that he expected to receive certification by late 2021, with deliveries predicted for 2022.

“This aircraft is not some future maybe. It is there, ready and waiting,” he said.

Bar-Yohay cited the contributions from Honeywell who built the plane’s controls as well as Siemens, and magniX who provided the electric motor and related functions.

A rendered image of the Eviation Alice. An electric aircraft designed to take 9 passengers up to 650 miles at 240 knots.

Source: Eviation

Bar-Yohay said the plane would now travel to Arizona in the United States where it would be flight tested before being put forward for certification with the U.S. FAA (Federal Aviation Administration).

The CEO added the plane should satisfy FAA concerns that it might create a backlog of training for pilots, as it was “probably one of the easiest planes to fly,” adding “this is one of the specimens that the FAA wants to see happen.”

The Eviation boss said that eventually, future planes would be built in the United States.

The aircraft comes with roughly 900 kilowatts of power split by three engines provided by magniX. Bar-Yohay claimed if there was a problem with the two wing engines, it could continue flying on the rear rotor only.

The CEO of magniX, Roei Ganzarski, also attended the launch, telling CNBC it was “exciting to see a dream come true.”

Ganzarski said his engines would be split between new clean sheet aircraft such as the Eviation and retrofitting existing small aircraft.

Most of Eviation’s funding is from Clermont Group, the private investment fund of Singapore-based billionaire Richard Chandler. Clermont has given Eviation $76 million in exchange for a 70% stake in the company, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated January 3.

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Italy’s finance minister plays down the idea of a parallel currency

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Giovanni Tria Italian Minister of Economy and Finance attends during Festival dell’ Economia in Trento on May 30, 2019.

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Italy’s finance chief does not see ongoing talks over a parallel currency materializing.

Market players have been wary of parliamentary discussions in Rome regarding an alternative for government debt repayments. Lawmakers are considering a proposal that would see the Italian Treasury issue securities — so-called mini-BOTs (short-term treasury bills) — that could be used by recipients to pay taxes or to buy goods or services from state-owned companies.

However, Giovanni Tria, the country’s finance minister, said Tuesday at a conference in London that he does not think mini-BOTs will be introduced. “We do not need this kind of instrument,” Tria said, according to Reuters. He also added that the introduction of a parallel currency is not on the agenda.

Tria, a technocrat without political affiliation, sounded more moderate than some of his government colleagues.

“We don’t want to create problems in Europe. We have to reinforce the trust in investors in Italy’s finance situations,” the finance minister told the audience.

Supporters of the idea, including one of Italy’s ruling parties, Lega, believe the short-term securities would help the government reduce its outstanding bills. On the other hand, critics argue that it would lead to higher public debt in a country that already has the second-largest debt pile in the euro zone.

The mini-BOTs discussion has also resurfaced fears about Italy’s commitment to the single currency. Prior to the general election in 2018, both coalition parties — the leftist Five Star Movement and the right-wing Lega, spread doubts about the country’s membership of the euro zone.

Since then, both parties have toned down their euroskepticism but one of the main economic minds from Lega, Claudio Borghi, is still openly hostile to the idea of the common currency.

“There are a number of economists, including influential ones close to the Italian government, who believe the euro is a key reason for Italian underperformance, and the leaders of the coalition have never fully put this idea to bed,” Erik Nielsen, group chief economist at UniCredit, said in a note last week.

Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund have sounded skeptical about the mini-BOTs discussion. Christine Lagarde, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, told CNBC last Thursday: “On this strange financial instrument that has been developed in Italy, we think that there are many better ways to deal with the payment of arrears. It does not require the creation of such instruments. Italian bonds could absolutely do the job … why bother?”

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Egytian billionaire Nassef Sawiris isn’t worried about trade war

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Billionaire business tycoon Nassef Sawiris heads a company that serves, among others, agricultural clients all over the world. But despite the U.S.-China trade war and all the uncertainty it’s wreaked on his customers, the OCI N.V CEO says he’s not deterred from investing.

“Trade is not helpful, but at the same time it’s manageable. I think people worry too much about the trade wars, I think the world can live with some trade friction, it’s not the end of the world,” Sawiris, who is ranked by Forbes as the world’s fourth-richest African, told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble in Abu Dhabi.

The Egyptian CEO’s company, OCI, produces and exports natural gas-based fertilizers and industrial chemicals to customers across agriculture and industry sectors.

“It creates some uncertainty for our customers, our farmers in North America had a tough time deciding what to plant, corn or soybeans — it had a lot to do with weather but more so with whether they can sell soybeans to China or they will be handicapped by some tariffs,” Sawiris described, referencing the mounting tit-for-tat tariff battle being waged between the world’s two largest economies.

“That created some added complexity in the minds of our customers and our farmers in the U.S.”

Early last month, President Donald Trump unexpectedly accused China of reneging on a deal and announced that tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods would increase to 25% from 10% on May 10. Beijing retaliated, raising levies on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. Trump has now said he’s ready to hit the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports with tariffs if a trade deal isn’t reached.

OCI N.V Chief Executive Officer Nassef Sawiris at a plenary session of the 9th VTB Capital Russia Calling! annual investment forum.

Mikhail Metzel | TASS via Getty Images

The developments have hit the American agriculture sector particularly hard, and the Trump administration had to introduce a $16 billion aid package for farmers hurt by reduced sales to China.

“Trade creates challenges and opportunities. Vietnam for example is benefiting from the trade war with China, the uncertainty is not welcome by the customers or the investment decision makers,” Sawiris said. “At the same time, I think it’s manageable.”

Asked if the uncertainty — from either the trade war or regional tensions in the Middle East — would ever stop him from investing in a given region, he replied with a laugh, “Uncertainty is our middle name, so we’ve gotten used to that.”

On Monday, the company announced a joint venture with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, ADNOC, to create the world’s largest exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizer and expand market access.

Sawiris’ net worth is estimated at more than $7.5 billion. He also serves as executive chairman of British football club Aston Villa FC.

A U.S. recession on the horizon?

Looking at markets, the CEO sees Europe as potentially undervalued, but is not holding out hope for a major uptick in growth from developed markets anytime soon.

“From a valuation perspective, you could argue that Europe continues to be discounted vis-a-vis North America,” he said. “But the whole market looks to be running out of steam, not just in terms of trade issues, but the growth in the U.S. has been going on for 11 years and all good things have to come to some slowdown at one point.”

Asked if he predicted a U.S. recession, he replied, “Not necessarily, but a slowdown I think is more realistic to be expected than continuous growth for another ten years.”

Sawiris was one of the biggest shareholders of LafargeHolcim, the world’s largest cement maker, before selling most of his shares — worth $67.5 million — at the start of this year. He announced he would not run for re-election to the company’s board in May.

OCI N.V.’s predecessor Orascom Construction Industries was the parent company of Orascom Cement, previously the Middle East’s largest cement maker, and was bought by Lafarge for $10 billion in 2007.

Nassef Sawiris is the youngest of the three Sawiris brothers, all billionaire business heavyweights who as a family own the Orascom conglomerate, which spans construction, telecommunications, tourism, industry and technology. Forbes in 2008 estimated the family’s collective wealth at $42 billion.

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